IP Telephony news wrap-up for Aug 11 – 2006

TeleGeography has released its Q2 report on the U.S. consumer VoIP market, a part of its U.S. VoIP Resarch Service, a subscription-based service. The report provides updates on market size & forecasts, the competitive landscape, regulatory issues, consumer attitudes, service provider profiles, and an analsyis of the growing marketplace.

The firm finds that U.S. consumer VoIP subscriptions grew 21% in Q2, down from 28% growth in Q1. Total new subscriptions for the quarter totaled 1.23 million, bringing the total installed base of VoIP subscriptions to 6.9 million, a 153% increase over the year.

Service Provider Market Leaders (Source: TeleGeography)

Provider SubsSubs Added in Q2
Vonage: 1.8 million243,000

Time Warner:1.6 million234,000


Comcast721,000 305,000

Telephia, a completely separate research firm, is reporting that Verizon and AT&T ended Q2 with around 160,000 subs each.

Heavy Reading has released VoIP Peering & the Future of Telecom Network Interconnection, a 92-page study that analzyes the impact that VoIP peering is having on the voice settlements process. The report evaluates a selection of VoIP platform operators, comparing services and business models. The publication also includes profiles of 16 peering service providers at the transport, signaling and ENUM level, as well as providing perspectives from 8 operators and 8 VoIP peering equipment and solution providers.

The firm finds that the rise in use of VoIP peering will eliminate the need for a middleman and therefore change the role of wholesale service providers and retail service providers for enterprises. Wholesalers will begin to move away from reselling minutes and instead facilitate interconnection for its customers. Heavy Reading also believes peering will drive the industry to a bill and keep settlement model, with standardized and reduced termination rates in the short term.

Peering is also effecting large enterprises, as these companies are bypassing retail carriers and directly peering with trading partners. As a result, these companies are saving 50 to 90 percent on termination fees.

Ultimately, the firm projects that peering communities will join together to create federations that will centralize the industry.

The study, available in PDF format, is available for $3,795. The price includes an enterprise license covering all of the employees at the buyer’s company.

The Dell’Oro Group has released two new studies including a report on the PBX market and one on the VoIP carrier market. The PBX study provides 5-year forecasts for manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, line shipments for IP PBXs, hybrid PBXs, traditional PBXs, traditional key systems and IP phones. The carrier market report provides 5-year forecasts for manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and license/channel shipments for softswitches and media gateways (breakouts are included for low, medium and high density gateways).

The firm finds total PBX revenues are projected to reach $7.1 billion annually in 2010, with sales of IP lines reaching $4.6 billion, a 24% CAGR. Hybrid systems currently account for the majority of sales, but Dell’Oro expects IP PBXs to win over the market within the next 5 years.

For the carrier market, the firm projects sales of softswitches and media gateways to increase from $2.5 billion in 2005 to $5 billion in 2010.

Dell’Oro Group
Frost & Sullivan has released 2 separate studies out of its Communications Services subscription including North American Residential VoIP Service Markets and Asia Pacific Residential Telephony Market. The N.A. study evaluates the drivers and challenges associated with mass market adoption of VoIP as well as examines technologies associated with VoIP delivery such as broadband, instant messaging, softphones and wireless. The Asia Pacific study evaluates the growth and sustainability of PSTN and IDSN and the impact of VoIP, FMS, and regulations on the residential telephony market.

The firm expects North American VoIP service revenues to grow from $1.22 billion in 2005 to $13.2 billion in 2012. For the Asia Pacific markets (13 covered), telephony revenues are projected to decrease from $51.58 billion in 2005 to $45 billion by the end of 2012. Subscriptions are projected to grow from 415.1 million in 2005 to 488.1 million in 2012, growing at a CAGR of 2.3%.

Frost & Sullivan expect growth in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, but still restrained by underdeveloped infrastructure and low ARPU levels. FMS and VoIP are projected to also contribute to lower ARPU.

For a virtual brochure of the North American report, email Mireya Castilla at mireya.castilla@frost.com with your full contact information. For a virtual brochure of the Asia Pacific publication, email Letticia Leopold at letticia.leopold@frost.com with your full contact information. Upon receipt, these firm associates will email you back with information for accessing more details about these studies.

Frost & Sullivan
Mintel Coppermedia, a research firm that tracks direct mailings, has attributed this year’s huge increase in junk mail in the U.S. to VoIP companies. The firm has identified 11 VoIP companies that have used junk mail to advertise its services and claims that Vonage alone has distributed more than 18 million mailings.

Last year, Mintel reported 60 million pieces of junk mail distributed in the U.S. In the first five months of this year, the firm claims more than 77 million direct mailings have been sent to U.S. households.

Mintel Coppermedia
Infonetics has released Service Provider Plans for Next Gen Voice & IMS, a 129-page study that examines the global migration of service providers from circuit switched networks to VoIP based on interviews with 24 service providers located in North America, Latin and Central America, and Asia Pacific. The report identifies drivers, barriers, trends, and implementation plans of providers who plan to adopt VoIP and possibly IMS over the next year. The publication also covers legacy and next gen voice product expenditures, technologies and manufacturers.

The firm finds the top 3 drivers for deploying VoIP to be new applications and services, capex savings and opex savings. The greatest barrier is equipment interoperability. IMS was lauded for its ease of new service creation but denounced for a lack of consensus on the definition of the IMS architecture.

The top strategy for deploying FMC including using SIP to dual mode handsets, integrating wireline and mobile services and using the IP core to transport voice between mobile switching centers.

In-Stat has released IMS in the Enterprise Market, a 40-page study that examines the enterprise IMS market opportunity in the U.S, hihgly based on a survey on enterprise IT that directly addresses business continuity. The report also includes 5-year forecasts for carrier-generated revenue for IMS services by category as well as forecasts for enterprise IT spending. The publication is a part of In-Stat’s IMS & FMC subscription service.

The firm finds IMS will generate over $15 billion annually by 2010 for US carriers. Based on its survey, In-Stat finds that over 45% of respondents indicated they would consider re-engineering internal processes to deploy IMS-based network services.

The study is available for $3,495.

ABI Research has released Next Generation Service Delivery Platforms, a study that examines the worldwide market for SDP as well as provides 5-year forecasts for deployments and capital expenditure.

Service provider profiles are provided for BT, Cingular, KPN, NTT DoCoMo, Orange and France Telecom Group, SK Telecom, Skype, Sprint Nextel, Telefonica, and Vodafone. Vendor profiles are provided for AePONA, Alcatel, Appium, BEA, Bridgewater, CoreMedia, Drutt, HP, IBM, Intel, Jamcracker, Microsoft, Mobile Cohesion, Narus, Nortle, Open Cloud, OpenClovis, Siemens, Sonus, Tatara, Tzaa, Telcordia, Telenity, and Uniper. A vendor comparison is presented for Alcatel, BEA, Ericsson, Telcordia, Nortel and Siemens.

The firm finds that fixed and mobile operators will invest $4 billion in SDP capital infrastructure over the next five years. Service revenue from IMS-enabled applications is projected to reach $49.6 billion in 2011.

The report goes for $4500.

ABI Research

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