IP Telephony news wrap-up for Feb 13 – 2006

Yankee Group has released Business VoIP Services Poised for Dynamic Growth, a study that explores business VoIP growth based on segmenting the market by VoIP over VPN, VoIP real- time QoS bandwidth, and hosted VoIP. Hosted VoIP is projected to lead the group in growth.

The firm expects the business VoIP market to generate $3.3 billion in revenues by 2010.

Yankee Group
IDC has released Softswitch Suppliers: The Battle for VoIP in the Cable Market, a study that examines the market profile of softswitch and media gateway vendors targeting the VoCable market.

The firm projects VoCable subscribers will increase from 2.2 million in 2005 to 19.8 million by 2009.

IDC suggests that integration of IMS into PacketCable specifications will be cable’s greatest obstacle in maintaining its momentum in the VoIP market.

Dell’Oro Group has released three recent studies all poorly entitled 5-Year Forecast Report. One study focuses on the IP PBX market, another examines the service provider router market, and another examines the VoIP carrier market.

The IP PBX study offers an overview of enterprise VoIP with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and line shipments for pure IP systems, hybrid systems, and traditional PBX and Key systems. The study also includes shipment data of IP phones.

The firm finds IP PBX sales are expected to grow three-fold from 2005-2010, to reach $2 billion. For the recent future, hybrid systems are projected to lead the market among the different types of PBX types.

IP phone revenues are expected to reach $4 billion in 2010, driven largely by the growing popularity of IP Centrex services and upgrades from handsets.

In a separate report, Dell’Oro tracks the worldwide market for service provider routers, providing forecasts for revenue, unit, port, and pricing for router products as well as for revenues generated by service providers and enterprise customer segments.

The firm projects service provider router sales to exceed $5 billion by the end of this year.

The VoIP carrier study covers manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, license/channel shipments for softswitches and media gateways, as well as breakouts for low, medium, and high density gateways.

The research group finds that carrier revenues are slated to grow from $1.6 billion in 2004 to $4.7 billion in 2010.

Dell’Oro Group
Sandvine, a vendor rather than market research firm, has released results from a Nov/Dec 2005 survey of 700,000 broadband households in North America and Europe to identify VoIP traffic trends.

For North America, the company finds that service branded providers account for 53% of traffic handling. Among 3rd party providers, Vonage carries the most VoIP minutes (21.7%), followed by Skype (14.4%). All remaining 3rd party VoIP providers captured the remaining 10.9% share of minutes.

North American broadband providers that offer VoIP nationwide capture an average of 81.8% of VoIP minutes on their own networks.

In Europe, service branded providers have a similar share to North American services, accounting for 51.2% of the market. Skype dominates 3rd party share with a strong 45% share, followed by Vonage’s sub 1% share. The remaining 3rd party service provider share represents 3.5% of all minutes carried.

ABI Research has released Voice over Wi-Fi: Market Dynamics for Enterprise and Consumer VoWi-Fi, and Dual Mode Cellular/ VoWi-Fi Handset, a study that discusses the technology, the competitive business environment, and growth factors for handsets. The report includes forecasts and tables.

ABI Research
Lucent Technology has published Converged Services Survey, a report detailing the market potential for U.S. carriers offering IP-based services over IMS networks. The study is based on survey responses and related business modeling. The vendor concludes the U.S. market for IP-based services is worth nearly $10 million a year, with business VoIP representing $5.6 billion and consumer services representing $4.2 billion.

The vendor suggests that the early target market for IP services incudes road warriors, customer service reps at mid sized companies, older professionals, and especially power users and young people.

Power users are supposedly going to be interested in network based call forwarding, conference call transcripts and shared data updated alerts. The youth are expected to be attracted to spontaneous communication with friends via live conferencing, universal instant messaging, text messaging, chat rooms, and phone photos that can be sent and received.

Detailed results of the research will be shared with Lucent’s service provider customers.

The company is now conducting research on the demand for blended services outside the U.S.

Lucent Technologies
In-Stat has released two new studies including a report on the growth of VoIP subscribers worldwide and a second on the VoCable market.

Global VoIP Has Arrived; Just Not as Expected!, provides year end 2005 subscriber figures and revenues by major carrier and region as well as 5-year forecasts for the data. In addition, the study identifies the unique challenges that different types of service providers face to successfully implement and market VoIP.

The firm expects the worldwide base of VoIP subscribers to grow from 16 million in 2005 to 55 million in 2009. Other findings include:

  • 73% of subscribers migrated to VoIP without making a conscious buying decision to adopt the technology.
  • Cable operators are gaining ground on other VoIP service providers and successfully marketing VoIP as if it were POTS
  • In Asia, VoIP is most popular in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore
  • In Europe, Free Telecom (France) and FastWeb (Italy) are successfully offering VoIP in triple play packages

    The report goes for $2,995.

    Separately, In-Stat has released Cable Telephony Service: VoIP Drives Subscriber Growth, a study that includes a business case for provisioning voice, an examination of the migration from circuit switched to packet telephony, and a break down of cost structure by specific network architecture. The publication also includes forecasts for worldwide VoCable subs and service revenues over the next 5 years.

    The firm expects worldwide cable telephony revenues to rise from $4.5 billion in 2004 to $5.6 billion in 2005 to $10 billion by 2009. VoCable subscribers are expected to reach 7 million (4.4 million in the U.S.) by the end of the year.

    Within the study, In-Stat claims that it costs between 17% and 25% less to provision a VoIP cable subscriber than a circuit switch cable telephony sub. In addition, the report discusses the emerging strategy by several U.S. based cable MSOs to add a cell phone option to its suite of services.

    The VoCable study is available for $2,495.


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